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XPath

January 29, 2013 Leave a comment

//a[@class=’PinImage ImgLink’]
(Selects all ‘a’ elements that have the attribute ‘class’ with a value of ‘PinImage ImgLink’)

忽發奇想要探究Yahoo Pipes,遇見XPath無解,唯有臨陣磨槍,邊邊做。幸好有一點兒HTML以及Javascript以及jQuery的底子,大部分概念如Parent、Siblings可以觸類旁通。

XPath is used to navigate through elements and attributes in an XML document.

Selecting Nodes
nodename Selects all nodes with the name “nodename”
/ Selects from the root node
// Selects nodes in the document from the current node that match the selection no matter where they are
. Selects the current node
.. Selects the parent of the current node
@ Selects attributes
bookstore Selects all nodes with the name “bookstore”
/bookstore Selects the root element bookstore
bookstore/book Selects all book elements that are children of bookstore
//book Selects all book elements no matter where they are in the document
bookstore//book Selects all book elements that are descendant of the bookstore element, no matter where they are under the bookstore element
//@lang Selects all attributes that are named lang

Predicates
/bookstore/book[1] Selects the first book element that is the child of the bookstore element.
/bookstore/book[last()] Selects the last book element that is the child of the bookstore element
/bookstore/book[last()-1] Selects the last but one book element that is the child of the bookstore element
/bookstore/book[position()<3] Selects the first two book elements that are children of the bookstore element
//title[@lang] Selects all the title elements that have an attribute named lang
//title[@lang=’eng’] Selects all the title elements that have an attribute named lang with a value of ‘eng’
/bookstore/book[price>35.00] Selects all the book elements of the bookstore element that have a price element with a value greater than 35.00
/bookstore/book[price>35.00]/title Selects all the title elements of the book elements of the bookstore element that have a price element with a value greater than 35.00

Selecting Unknown Nodes
* Matches any element node
@* Matches any attribute node
node() Matches any node of any kind
/bookstore/* Selects all the child nodes of the bookstore element
//* Selects all elements in the document
//title[@*] Selects all title elements which have any attribute

Selecting Several Paths
//book/title | //book/price Selects all the title AND price elements of all book elements
//title | //price Selects all the title AND price elements in the document
/bookstore/book/title | //price Selects all the title elements of the book element of the bookstore element AND all the price elements in the document

簡化如下:
/ CHILD
// DESCENDANT
.. PARENTS
* ALL
@ ATTRIBUTE
” STRING
| AND
//elements[@attribute=’value’]

Categories: Coding

Apple Inc AAPL Q1 2013 Earnings Call Transcript

January 28, 2013 Leave a comment

Transcript Call Date 01/23/2013
Operator: Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley.

Kathryn Huberty – Morgan Stanley: It’s clear that iPhone 5 did incredibly well in the U.S. based on the carryover report to-date, but international sell-through data points have been more mixed, how would you characterize trends outside the U.S. for iPhone and are you confident that you have all the right price points and screen sizes to fully capture the non-U.S. demand for iPhone specifically?

Tim Cook – CEO: Katy, it’s Tim. As Peter said, sequentially we increased over 70% from the September quarter, which was 3.5 times market. So we could not be happier with that. In terms of the geographic distribution, we’d saw our highest growth in China and it was into the triple-digits, which was higher than the market there and so I would characterize it as we’re extremely pleased.

Kathryn Huberty – Morgan Stanley: Then maybe a question for Peter, with a such large cash generation again this quarter and confidence in the product pipeline, you made those comments and a stock price that is off at highs, why not step up and buy back even more stock than you had originally planned at this point?

Peter Oppenheimer – SVP and CFO: Sure. This is something that we continuously assess. The opportunities to both invest in the business and return cash. We’re pleased to have started our share repurchase program this quarter and combined with our dividend, we returned about $4.5 billion of cash this quarter and we started the buyback program and expect to return about $45 billion over three years to our shareholders. We do consider increasing these programs and we’ll do what we think is in the best interest of our shareholders.
Operator: Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs.

Bill Shope – Goldman Sachs: Kathy had eluded to this many of your smartphone competitors are now focusing on differentiating themselves with larger screen sizes than that of the iPhone 5 in your predecessor products, I mean how do you think about the competitive dynamics for the market right now, in that respect do you think that’s a valid point of differentiation? Do you think there is a long-term case for a larger screen size or at least the larger variety of screen sizes for iPhones and for the smartphone category in general?

Tim Cook – CEO: Bill, its Tim. The iPhone 5 offers as you know a new 4-inch Retina display which is the most advanced display in the industry, and no one comes close to matching the level of quality as the Retina display. It also provides a larger screen size for iPhone customers without sacrificing the one-headed ease-of-use that our customers love. So, we put a lot of thinking into screen size and believe we picked the right one.

Bill Shope – Goldman Sachs: I guess, and then shifting on to the question on iPhone demand, obviously you saw healthy growth in the key categories this quarter. Then in the context of your guidance, can you give us some color about how you’re viewing in-demand trends for the iPhone coming out of the December quarter and how that compares to what you consider to be normal seasonality at this point in the product cycle? And also, did you see any meaningful deterioration in iPhone demand at the end of the December quarter or thus far in the March quarter that would lend credence to some near-term conservatism?

Tim Cook – CEO: Bill, let me take the second half of that and then I’ll hand it back to Peter for the first half. If you look at the iPhone sales across the quarter, we were very constrained for much of the quarter on iPhone 5. As we began to produce more and ship more, sales went up with the production. iPhone 4 was actually in constraint for the entire quarter, and sales remained strong, and so that’s how sales progressed across the quarter. I’ll let Peter talk about the guidance.

Peter Oppenheimer – SVP and CFO: So, Bill, for iPhone, as we told you last year, we built about 2.6 million units of channel inventory in the March quarter which allowed us at that time to get into our four-to-six-week inventory target. So, the underlying sell-through was about 32.5 million, and we would expect sell-through growth year-over-year as it has for – in the quarter, as it has for many quarters in a row.

Tim Cook – CEO: Bill, let me make one additional point on this. I know there’s been lots of rumors about order cuts and so forth, and so let me just take a moment to make a comment on this. I don’t want to comment on any particular rumor because I would – in my life doing that, but I would suggest it’s good to question the accuracy of any kind of rumor about build plans, and also stress that even if a particular data point were factual, it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business, because the supply chain is very complex and we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supplier performance can vary, the beginning inventory positions can vary, I mean, there’s just an ordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on.

Operator: Toni Sacconaghi, Sanford Bernstein

Toni Sacconaghi – Sanford Bernstein: I just wanted to make sure that I fully understand your comments about guidance, in the new guidance range that you’re providing. Are you effectively saying that when you provided guidance before, it was uniquely conservative and that level of conservatism no longer exists? We’re actually getting the real planning range for Apple and that this is fundamentally different from how you approached and provided guidance?

Peter Oppenheimer – SVP and CFO: Tony, it’s Peter. In the past we provided a single-point estimate of guidance that was conservative, that we had reasonable confidence in achieving. This quarter and going forward we’re going to provide a range of guidance that we believe that we’re likely to report within. No guarantee as forecasting is difficult, but we believe that we will report within that range.

Toni Sacconaghi – Sanford Bernstein: So, I’m just comparing the word so you think you’ll report in the range before or are you — I think on average it clips to your guidance on EPS by 35%, was the guidance before something that you felt reasonably confident in achieving or was there an implicit buffer in there because I’m trying to reconcile the fact that you said you thought it was reasonable before, but your historical president was you eclipsed it enormously on an ongoing basis and this time you’re saying there is a likelihood of falling within the range and I want to understand the distinction?

Peter Oppenheimer – SVP and CFO: I’ll go through it again. In the past, we gave you a single-point estimate of guidance that was conservative, that we had as reasonable confidence as you can that we would achieve. We’re now providing you a range of guidance that we expect to as best we can report within.

Toni Sacconaghi – Sanford Bernstein: Then if I could follow-up, Tim you started the call talking about Apple’s philosophy of really ensuring that you satisfy your customers and making great products. Against that backdrop how important is market share preservation, this quarter you held share maybe increased it fractionally on a year-over-year basis in the global smartphone market, but clearly you had an exciting new product. Is holding share in the smartphone market in 2013 a priority for Apple, yes or no, and why, and realistically, how does Apple hold share given that the market segment that – and price point that you play in is expected to grow a lot slower and you have pretty dominant share in that high-end?

Tim Cook – CEO: Toni, the most important thing to Apple is to make the best products in the world that enrich customers’ lives. That’s our high order bid. That means that we aren’t interested in revenue for revenue’s sake. We could put the Apple brand in a lot of things and sell a lot more stuff, but that’s not what we’re here for. We want to make only the best products. And so what does that mean for market share? We’ve been able to do that, and I think we’ve had a great track record here on iPod of doing different products at different price points and getting a reasonable share for doing that. And so, one doesn’t – I wouldn’t view these things as mutually exclusive as some might. But the high-order bid is making a great product that enriches customers’ lives. And so, that’s what we’re focused on.

Operator: Ben Reitzes, Barclays.

Ben Reitzes – Barclays: First question is with regard to Macs. Could you talk a little bit more about what happened? And it would seem that the shortfall there is well over $1 billion in the quarter, maybe even as much as a $1.5 billion, and how much of that was pushed into the March quarter within that new March guidance?

Tim Cook – CEO: Ben, it’s Tim. Thanks for asking that question; I wanted to talk about this. If you look – I think the best way to answer this is, if you look at the previous year, our Mac sales were about 5.2 million. This year they were 4 and so the difference is 1.1. So, let me try to bridge that. iMacs were down by 700,000 units year-over-year. As you remember, we announced the new iMacs late in October and when we announced those, we announced that they would ship the first one, the 21.5-inch would ship in November and we did ship it at the end of November. We announced that the 27-inch would ship in December and we did ship that in mid-December and so there were limited weeks of ramping on these products during the quarter. We left the quarter with significant constraints on the iMac and we believe we know that our sales would have been materially higher if those constraints would not have exist. We tried to tell people this on the conference call in October, I think I said that we would have significant constraints on iMac and so – but I recognize to some folks who may be surprised. Number two, if you look at last year as Peter went through in his opening comments we had 14-weeks in the quarter. We have 13-weeks in the quarter this year. Last year in the average week we sold 370,000 Macs. The third part of the bridge here would be that our channel inventory was down from the beginning of the quarter by over a 100,000 units and that’s because obviously we didn’t have the iMacs and channel inventory, it was in significant constrain. So if you just take these three factors they bridge more than the difference of between this year’s sales and last year’s sales. Now, in addition to these three points, I would point out two other things and these are lesser things than the total of these other three obviously. One, the market for PCs is weak. IDC’s last estimate I believe was around negative 6%. Two, we sold 23 million iPads and we obviously could have sold more than this because we could not build enough iPad mini’s to come into a demand balance. So, we’ve always said there was some cannibalization there I’m sure there were some cannibalization of Macs there. But the three large factors of the aggregated, total of the three large the iMacs the difference in seven days of the previous year having seven extra days in the channel inventory I think more than explains the difference between this year and the previous year. As a side note, if you looked at our portables alone they were in line with IDC’s projections of market growth.

Ben Reitzes – Barclays: Then just my follow-up is with regard to web services, online services there’s been a lot of publicity around Maps and can you give us an update there? Then looking forward how does the year look in terms of innovation in terms of iOS 7 and your online and web services how will that drive Apple?

Peter Oppenheimer – SVP and CFO: Let me start with the second part of this. We are working on some incredible stuff. The pipeline is (chalk) full. I don’t want to comment about a specific product, but we feel great about what we’ve got in store. In terms of Maps, we’ve made a number of improvements to map since the introduction of iOS 6 back in September and we’ll roll out even more improvements across the rest of the year and we’re going to keep working on this as I’ve said before until it lives up to our incredibly high standards. Users can already see many of these improvements because they include things like improved satellite and (flyer) imagery, with categorization in improved local information for thousands of businesses and so forth. The usage in Maps is significantly higher than it was prior to iOS 6. In terms of other services, we feel fantastic about how we’re doing. In Notification Center, we’ve now sent over 4 trillion notifications. This is mind-blowing. As Peter mentioned in his opening comments, for iMessage we’ve now sent over 450 billion and are currently sending now over 2 billion per day. With Game Center, we’ve got over 200 million registered users. We have 800,000 apps on the App Store with over 40 billion downloads. And so, I feel really, really great about it. There’s obviously more stuff we can do and you can bet we’re thinking about all of it.

Operator: Steve Milunovich, UBS.

Steven Milunovich – UBS Securities: Could you review your comments about gross margin in the quarter and also looking ahead perhaps commenting on a few areas; first of all, where you are on your product cost curve relative to where you expected to be? And then, also any comments on mix; within the iPhone line in terms of 5 versus 4S, amount of storage? And then also on the iPad; last quarter you said you really didn’t know what the proportion of Minis would be. Can you make any comments in terms of the demand for Mini relative to what you expected?

Peter Oppenheimer – SVP and CFO: Sure, Steve. It’s Peter. I’ll start. I’ll make a comment on Mini, go through gross margin, and maybe Tim can pick up on some of your iPhone questions. With the iPad mini, it’s hard to know. We could not make enough in the quarter. We were constrained every week. Customers love the Mini and we wish that we could have made more and we ended the quarter with significant backlog. For the gross margin in the December quarter, we were about 260 basis points ahead of our guidance. About half this difference was driven by lower product and transitory cost and we had reflected in our guidance, and the rest came from a higher mix of iPhones, a weaker dollar, and leverage on the higher revenue. As we look forward, we think the gross margin will be somewhere between about 10 basis points and 110 basis points lower sequentially. We believe that there are two primary factors that will benefit gross margin sequentially. First and the largest of the two, our teams have made meaningful progress in reductions in product and transitory costs from the actions that they’ve been working on to get down the cost curve, so we expect to benefit in the March quarter beyond what we saw in the December quarter. And second, we expect a more typical level of deferred revenue from device sales. We expect these factors to be more than offset by 10 to a 120 basis points by the loss of leverage coming out of the December quarter, which is very typical for us, and a different mix of our current products. Regarding mix, as an example, as we indicated the last quarter, the iPad mini gross margin is significantly below the corporate average and we expect to be able to meet demand for this product in the March quarter, which again we could not in the December quarter.

Tim Cook – CEO: Steve, I’ll make some comments on mix. If you look – your question on iPhone mix; let me bring up three points. One, the ASP for iPhone was essentially the same year-over-year in the quarter that we just finished. Underneath that if you looked at the mix of iPhone 5 to total iPhone and then in the previous year you look at 4S to total iPhones towards the top iPhone those mixes are similar. Then thirdly I think you asked about capacities in Q1 we saw similar results as we saw in Q1 of the previous year. So does that answer your question on mix?

Steven Milunovich – UBS Securities: Yes, it does. Then second question would be on CapEx, you spend almost as much as Intel does. I think you guys have said, you’re not going to become vertically integrated per se, but in a sense you are since most of that I assume is buying equipment for your partners. Could you talk about the strategy here and how much of a differentiated this gives Apple in terms of your ability to ramp new products over time and maybe a little bit more about how deep you will you go in terms of semiconductor componentry etcetera?

Peter Oppenheimer – SVP and CFO: We expect to spend about $10 billion in CapEx this fiscal year that will be up little under $2 billion year-over-year. We expect to spend a little bit under $1 billion in retail stores and the other $9 billion is spent in a variety of areas. We’re buying equipment that we will own that we will put in our partners facilities. Our primary motivation there is for a supply, but we get other benefits as well. We’re also adding to our data center capabilities to support all the services that Tim spoke about in answering Ben’s question and in facilities and in infrastructure. So, that’s where the capital is going.
Operator: Shannon Cross, Cross Research Group.

Shannon Cross – Cross Research: Tim, can you talk a bit about what happened last year in terms of the refresh cycle, where you had about 80% of your revenue refreshed in the last few months? And then how you’re thinking about this year? I mean, I know you said you ship products when they’re ready, but I mean is this a situation where you’re going to try to stagger it out a little bit this year, or will it be sort of a similar situation to 2012?

Tim Cook – CEO: It’s a question I won’t answer, Shannon, but the 80% was an unusually high percentage for us. I don’t know exactly what the historic numbers on that, but I can tell you that the number of RAMS were unprecedented in the fact that we had new products in every category – is something we have not done before. We feel great to have delivered 70 products for the holiday season though, and our customers have certainly expressed joy over it.

Shannon Cross – Cross Research: And then I guess can you talk a bit more about China? You provided which is great; you’ve broken out the Greater China revenue. But can you talk about what you’re hearing from customers and from some of your partners there; your thoughts on retail distribution and expansion, and just sort of overall what you’re seeing over – what you saw over the holiday period, and then, what you sort of expect from China going forward?

Tim Cook – CEO: Yeah, if you look at our total Greater China, which would include our retail stores that are in China, our revenues were $7.3 billion in the quarter. So, this is incredibly high, it’s up over 60% year-on-year. And again, that’s comparing 13 to 14 weeks, and so it’s really the underlying growth is higher than that. We saw exceptional growth in iPhones into the triple digits. iPad, we shipped iPad very late in the quarter in December and despite that saw a very nice growth. We are expanding in Apple retail there. In the year ago quarter, we had six stores, we now have 11. We obviously have many more to open there and our premium resellers, we went over 400, up from a little over 200 in the previous year and we increased iPhone point of sales from 7,000 to over 17,000 there. Now, this isn’t nearly what we need and it’s not the final by any means. We’re not even close to that, but we’re making – I feel that we’re making great progress. I was just over there recently and talking to a lot of different people. I am very happy with how things are going.

Peter Oppenheimer – SVP and CFO: It’s clear that China, it’s already our second largest region as you can see from the data that we’ve given you and it’s clear there’s a lot of potential there.

Operator: Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray.

Gene Munster – Piper Jaffray: Tim, you made comment in the past that Apple TV experience is (indiscernible) and Apple wants to fix that problem. If we can take a step outside of the form factor debate whether it’s a box or – can you just talk on high-level how important this market is to Apple, number one? Number two is, can you accomplish what you ultimately want to accomplish with the reality of where is content is today and how content is distributed?

Tim Cook – CEO: Gene you’re asking me all the questions that I don’t want to answer, but let me sit back and find some comments to make this productive. In terms of the product that we sell today the Apple TV we sold more last quarter than we’ve ever sold before, eclipsing 2 million during the quarter. It was up almost 60% year-on-year and so there is actually very, very good growth in that product. And what was the small niche at one time of people that loved it is a much larger number that love it. I have said in the past this is an area of intense interest for us, and it remains that and I tend to believe that there is a lot we can contribute in this space, and so we continue to pull the string and see where it leads us. But I don’t want to be more specific…

Gene Munster – Piper Jaffray: Just a housekeeping for Peter; Peter you gave gross margin guidance this quarter, but no EPS guidance, is there anything any moving parts between the gross margin and the operating line that we should be aware of that might have account that nuances in how you’re giving guidance?

Peter Oppenheimer – SVP and CFO: No, Gene. Our prior method of providing guidance was a point estimate for each line item of the P&L, including EPS and our guidance for the March quarter and how we will give guidance in the future, we’re going to give a range for revenue, for gross margin and for OpEx and therefore there are many possibilities for EPS within the range, that we’ll leave you to think through and we’ll report our actual results for March to you in April.

Operator: Keith Bachman, Bank of Montreal.

Keith Bachman – Bank of Montreal: The first one is, Tim, could you talk a little bit about the data, even if anecdotal, on how iPhone sales proceeded in terms of new customers versus upgrades and how that compared to, say, if you go to the 4S last year?

Tim Cook – CEO: I don’t have those specific numbers in front of me, but the iPhone 5, obviously with the numbers that we’re selling and selling to a lot of new customers.

Keith Bachman – Bank of Montreal: Okay, because we’d had heard feedback that there was a lot more of an upgrade cycle to existing customers, but it sounds like that’s not a statement that you would agree with?

Tim Cook – CEO: I don’t know who you were talking to, and so, again, this is one of those things I would caution on using as a proxy for the world. There are many carriers created differently.

Keith Bachman – Bank of Montreal: Well, let me turn to my next question then. Peter, as we think about the March quarter, I’m a bit confused how to think about iPads. And you mentioned that iPad mini was constrained. Any kind of comments on what seasonality would be, and more importantly, how are you thinking about the aggregate amount of inventory that’s in the channel for iPads? Will that amount increase, decrease, or stay the same as we reflect on how to model units in the March quarter?

Tim Cook – CEO: Keith, it’s Tim. Let me make a couple of comments. iPad mini was very constrained. We ended with underneath our target channel inventory range which Peter had commented earlier. We believe that we can achieve supply-demand balance on iPad mini later this quarter. That would likely mean that we would need more units in the channel than we have today. I think that would be a fair conclusion to draw.

Peter Oppenheimer – SVP and CFO: Keith, I’ll add to that. For total iPad sales, we don’t provide a sub-level forecast, but we would expect a large year-over-year increase in iPad sales, but a post-holiday sequential decline for iPad sales, which I think is typical. As Tim said, we expect to be able to meet demand for the mini.

Tim Cook – CEO: Keith, it’s probably worth pointing out just to be totally clear, for the last quarter, we had strong sales of iPad and iPad mini.

Operator: Scott Craig, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Scott Craig – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Tim, can you maybe discuss the tablet market a little bit in relation to Macs and other PCs and sort of how you are thinking about the cannibalization of that market for the iPad relative to the PC market? Then secondly, typically could you sort of talk about some of the component constraints and you certainly talked about iPhone 4 being constrained than the iPad mini et cetera. So as you enter into the quarter where do you see the challenges for meeting demand for the calendar first quarter?

Tim Cook – CEO: Sure, let me take the second part of that first. I think overall our team did just a fantastic job ramping out record number of new products during the quarter. We did have significant shortages due to robust demand on both iPad mini and both models of the iMac that persisted the entire quarter, and we are still short of both of those today as a matter of fact. Additionally, supply of iPhone 5 was short to demand until late in the quarter and iPhone 4 was short for the entire quarter. We believe that we can achieve supply/demand balance on iPad mini during this quarter and on iPhone 4 during this quarter. On iMac we’re confident that we’re going to significantly increase the supply, but the demand tier is very strong and we’re not certain that we will achieve a supply/demand balance during the quarter. In terms of cannibalization and how we think about this, I see cannibalization as a huge opportunity for us. One, our based philosophy to never fee cannibalization, if we do somebody else will just cannibalize it and so we never fear it. We know that iPhone has cannibalized the My Pod business it doesn’t worry that it’s done that. We know that iPhone would cannibalize through Macs, that doesn’t worry us. On iPad in particular, we have the mother of all opportunities here, because the Windows market is much, much larger than the Mac market is, and I think it is clear that it’s already cannibalizing some and I think there’s a tremendous amount of more opportunity there. As you know I’ve said for two or three – actually three years now I believe that I believe the tablet market would be larger than the PC market at some point, I still believe that and you can see by the growth in tablets and the pressure on Pcs that those lines are beginning to converge. I think the other thing for us, maybe not for others, but for us if somebody who buys an iPad mini or an iPad and it’s their first Apple product we had great experience through the years of knowing that when somebody buys their first Apple product, that a percentage of these people wind up buying another type of Apple product. And so, if you remember, what we had termed the halo effect for some time with the iPod with the Mac, we’re very confident that that will happen and we’re seeing some evidence of that on the iPad as well. And so, I see cannibalization as a huge opportunity.

Operator: Mark Moskowitz, JPMorgan.

Mark Moskowitz – JPMorgan: Question, Tim, around the iPhone. Peter gave us some transparency around the qualitative sequential and year-over-year potential increases in the iPad for the March quarter. How should we think about the iPhone family, (so I think) in terms of year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter potential increases or decreases, and are there any sort of dynamics around slower pace of LTE rollouts by the network carriers having an impact?

Tim Cook – CEO: The thing to consider on iPhone, Mark, is that in the year ago quarter we built 2.6 million units of channel inventory because we did the – one reason was that we did the China launch in the March quarter instead of in the previous quarter. And so the underlying sell-through from the year ago quarter was (32.5). The sell-in was (35) as you can probably see on a sheet in front of you. And so, in thinking through the number of iPhones to predict, we looked at the (32.5) number as a baseline, and we clearly believe that we’re going to grow year-over-year, but I don’t want to be more specific than that because Peter has already given you some top level guidance and that’s how we guide in the aggregate instead of the product level.

Mark Moskowitz – JPMorgan: Then my follow-up is just around the pace of LTE build outs across the globe, either in Europe or parts of Asia has those slower than expected rollouts from the networks perspective, has that had any sort of impact you think on your iPhone sales philosophy and could that change over the next 12 months as you see LTE capacity become more available elsewhere?

Tim Cook – CEO: It’s a good question. Today we have 24 carriers around the world that provide LTE support for iPhone 5. Those are in countries like the U.S., Korea, the U.K., Germany, Canada, Japan, Australia and a few others. Next week, we are adding 36 more carriers for LTE support. These carriers will be in countries that we’re currently not supporting LTE. So, the LTE coverage now as of next week in Italy, Denmark, Finland, Switzerland, Philippines also several Middle Eastern countries and so if you look at the total of all of these and the incremental subscribers that are in these countries it’s over 300 million. So that’s the next range of LTE rollout and I’m pleased to tell you about today. Also, as you know, iPhone 5 also supports other ultrafast networks like HSPA+ with downloads up to 42 mbs, which is three times the speed of the iPhone for us. So, we feel very good about the situation that we’re in, particularly with these adds next week.

Operator: Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank.

Chris Whitmore – Deutsche Bank: Just to follow-up on the iPhone question with respect to guidance just assuming there was some benefit from the Mac carryover effect in iPad release etcetera and adjusting for the inventory it seems you’re guiding to mid to high-single digit year-on-year unit growth for the iPhone business from the sell-through standpoint. Is that the right ballpark we should be thinking about and why the big deceleration from the 25% plus weekly sales rate you quoted in your intro comments?

Peter Oppenheimer – SVP and CFO: We are not going to talk about the guidance in a specific product level but let me give you some things we thought about in coming up with the range of $41 billion to $43 billion. That range is 5% to 10% year-over-year increase and there are a few factors that are impacting the year-over-year results, making the strong performance of the business a little bit harder so see. So, let me point a few of these out. First of all, as we talked about several times on the call last year in the March quarter we built 2.6 million units of iPhone channel inventory which allowed us to get into our four to six week range, that increased the revenue in the year ago quarter by $1.6 billion. As Tim talked about that was sell-in that was not sell-through, we’re thinking about the business on a sell-through basis, so don’t lose sight of the $1.6 billion. Second, the iPhone 5 roll out this year has been our fast as ever. We’re selling in 100 countries by the end of December. Last year we did not achieve this country distribution until the March quarter, which included China that we launched in January. Third, we made a very good strategic decision to introduce the iPad mini which customers love and to keep the price-reduced iPad 2 in the line. As a result of this, we saw a reduction in our iPad ASPs of about $101 year-over-year in the December quarter and you can see that our iPad units grew faster than our iPad revenue in the December quarter. We would expect iPad ASPs to be down quite a bit in the March quarter on a year-over-year basis for the same reasons. Then finally, the PC market grew 4% last year in the March quarter, and this year IDC is projecting that to decline by 3%. So, considering these factors the underlying performance of the business is much stronger than the 5% to 10% year-over-year growth implies and we remain very confident in our business and our new product pipeline.

Chris Whitmore – Deutsche Bank: For my follow-up, I wanted to come back to something Tim said earlier about not fearing cannibalization. I wanted to ask in context of your iPhone business, given the strength you’re seeing at the low-end of your product line, the iPhone 4 being stacked out during the quarter, there seems to be a lot of demand at lower price points for the iPhone. Why not get more aggressive at lower price bands and move down-market in the iPhone business?

Tim Cook – CEO: I’m not going to go into our pricing strategy, but we feel great about the opportunity of getting products to customers and a percentage of those buying other Apple products. We’ve obviously seen evidence of that through history and continue to see evidence of that today.

Nancy Paxton – IR: A replay of today’s call will be available for two weeks as a podcast on the iTunes Store, as a webcast on apple.com/investor, and via telephone, and the numbers for the telephone replay are 888-203-1112 or 719-457-0820. Please enter confirmation code 1474555. These replays will be available by approximately 5.30 PM Pacific Time today. Members of the press with additional questions can contact Steve Dowling at 408-974-1896 and financial analysts can contact Joan Hoover or me with additional questions. Joan is at 408-974-4570, and I’m at 408-974-5420. Thanks again for joining us.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today’s presentation. We do thank everyone for your participation.

Categories: iOS, Mobile

諾基亞上季扭虧為盈 惟銷售繼續下滑

January 25, 2013 Leave a comment

諾基亞公布去年第四季度扭虧為盈,賺4.39億歐羅(約45.5億港元),2011年同期為虧損9.54億歐羅,每股盈利為0.05歐羅,不建議派末期息。期內,銷售淨額倒退19.63%,至80.41億歐羅,淨現金流為5.63億歐羅。截至去年底,淨現金及等價物為43.6億歐羅,較2011年底55.81億歐羅減少,但較9月底增加近8億歐羅。

去年由第一至第四季度,諾基亞銷售淨額一直在下滑,按年跌幅分別是29%、19%、19%以及20%,下滑的勢頭沒有平穩跡象,但最後一季終於扭虧為盈,主要還是因為成本控制措施取得重大成績。去年諾基亞裁減大量人手,約3.2萬個職位,成功令公司「瘦身」。

去年第四季,諾基亞以1.7億歐羅出售位於芬蘭Espoo的總部大樓,以約1億歐羅出售Vertu奢侈品牌,又透過發行可換股債集資7.5億歐羅,與RIM的專利糾紛和解亦獲得0.5億歐羅。上述措施為諾基亞爭取到10.7億歐羅現金和更多時間,實現其扭虧為盈的計劃。

諾基亞旗下網路設備業務諾基亞西門子,銷售淨額按年升5%至39.88億歐羅,營運利潤升2.75倍至2.51億歐羅;地理位置及商業業務銷售淨額減少9%,至2.78億歐羅,虧損大幅收窄至5600萬歐羅。

至於設備及服務業務,銷售淨額倒退36%至38.54億歐羅,其中智能裝置減少55%至12.25億歐羅,功能手機減少19%至24.68億歐羅。以地區分類,大中華地區銷售淨額減少79%至2.13億歐羅,歐洲減少37%至12.1億歐羅,中東非洲減少30%至7.45億歐羅,亞太區減少27%至9.41億歐羅,北美增長2.7倍至1.96億歐羅,而拉丁美洲減少16%至5.49億歐羅。
不過,營運利潤就增長36%至2.76億歐羅,主要因為智能裝置平均售價由140歐羅回升至186歐羅,Lumia系列平均售價更達192歐羅,而Lumia系列在北美及歐洲銷情理想,彌補了Symbian以及功能手機銷量在其他地區急劇下滑的影響。

Categories: Finance

蘋果季績詳解(2012Q4)

January 24, 2013 2 comments

蘋果公司今日凌晨公布的季度業績,除了受到科技界關注外,亦是投資市場的焦點。作為全世界市值最高的公司,蘋果季度收入以及利潤均再創歷史新高,iPhone及iPad銷量亦有顯著增長。

但由於剛公布的業績不及預期,所以蘋果股價在場外交易時段下挫超過一成,跌至接近450美元。憂慮蘋果業績放緩,蘋果股價從去年9月開始進入下降周期,由高位700美元跌至最近約500美元,累計跌幅達三成。

增長依然,放緩必然

每次蘋果新產品發布的季度,蘋果業績都會增長。而在9月蘋果推出iPhone 5,又在10月推出iPad 4以及iPad mini,新產品帶動其收入較去年同期增長18%至545.12億美元。各項產品中,iPhone銷量增長29%至4778.9萬部;iPad銷量增長48%至2286萬台,均創下歷史新高。

既然蘋果產品銷量及收入都表現理想,為何股價仍會重挫呢?因為擔心蘋果增長放緩。

過往財務報表和左上圖的營業額變化可以看到,蘋果季度收入整體仍處於上升軌道當中,當然受季節因素影響,每年第四季度都顯著高於其他季度。補充一點,蘋果的年結在9月底,所以會稱9月至12月為「第一財季」,但下面一律改稱「第四季度」,以符合一般人對四季的認知。

但在左下圖的營業額增長率變化就看到,蘋果季度收入增長,不斷在減慢放緩,由去年第一季度的59%,放緩至第二及第三季度的23%及27%,第四季度再進一步放緩至18%。而在2011年,在第一、第三及第四季增長率都達到70%以上。按目前的趨勢推論,今個季度增長有機會放緩至單位數,今年之內甚麼可能出現倒退。

蘋果的iPhone和iPad銷量增長亦出現同樣的放緩情況。撇除個別季度消費者持幣觀望蘋果公布新一代產品,而令iPhone銷量積壓收縮,iPhone銷量增長在2011年其中三個季度都達到100%以上,但去年第一季度就放緩至88%,第二及第三季度放緩至28%及58%,第四季度再放緩至29%。iPad情況亦相似,2011年銷售增長率都達到100%,但2012年第二至四季就放緩至84%、26%以及48%。

事實上,蘋果的增長不可能永遠持續下去,因為蘋果已經富可敵國,其收入高於很多世界上的小國,而且在如此高的基數之下,即使銷售增量顯著,反映在百分比增幅上都會呈現放緩。譬如,兩年前iPhone季度銷量是1000萬部,只要再增加1000萬部增長率便達100%,但如今季度銷量達5000萬部,即使增長1000萬部也只是增長20%。高基數下增長放緩實無可避免。

作為對比,根據市場調查機構Gartner的資料,去年首三季度的全球智能手機銷量增長率分別為47%43%以及45%,大致增長維持在45%左右的水平,第四季度的調查仍未出爐,但相信亦有40%以上,而蘋果的iPhone銷量分別為88%、28%以及58%,第二季增長開始追不上整體市場增長,變相令市場份額下降,第三季發布iPhone 5回勇,但第四季增長只有29%,估計亦會「跑輸大市」。究其原因,智能手機銷量增加是因為價格愈來愈平民化,令更多人負擔得起,智能手機製造成本隨著規模增加而下降,在發展中國家出現低於100美元智能手機,在性能、功能和使用體驗上可以達到600美元以上iPhone的一半甚至更多,而價格僅是iPhone的六分之一甚至更低。蘋果採取精品路線,選擇捨棄規模和市場份額,而搶佔更多的利潤,銷量增長「跑輸大市」是必然的結果。

未來市場仍然會關注蘋果收入和產品銷量增長情況,到底是慢慢增長、維持持平、慢慢放緩,抑或是大幅放緩,與整體智能手機市場比較如何?目前仍未清楚,但對於敏感的資本市場而言,不同情況會帶來截然不同的結果。

成本大漲,毛利受壓

在收入和銷量增長放緩的同時,蘋果還要面對其他問題,就是收入上升的18%同時,利潤沒有跟隨,只是輕微增長0.11%,每股盈利更出現倒退0.43%,反映出成本增幅高於收入增幅,毛利率持續受壓。

一條簡單的公式:利潤增幅 = 收入增幅 – 成本增幅。

成本大幅上漲的主因為何?蘋果業績沒有詳細解釋,在財務報表列載的各項成本中,只能見到銷售成本(Cost of Sales)增加31%,達到334.52億美元,增幅遠高於18%的收入增幅,完全抵銷了收入增長的利好因素。研發費用和一般行政費用亦分別增長33%以及9%,但兩者合共只是38.5億美元,相對銷售成本只是小數目。

銷售成本一般包括生產產品的成本,主要就是iPhone、iPad的生產成本。去年第四季度商品價格沒有顯著回升,意味著成本壓力來自代工和芯片成本,產品設計和定位本身亦可能造成毛利率受壓。

近年鴻海富士康工人自殺、工作環境惡劣的報道,逼使蘋果提高工人福利,令製造成本上升。另一方面,全球智能手機和平板電腦市場爆炸,蘋果作為先行者在供應鏈上雖然有優勢,但各大廠商對平板電腦及手機零件的需求持續上升,零件價格上漲,令採購成本上漲。

此外,三星一直是蘋果最大供應商,蘋果亦是三星最大的客戶,每年供應蘋果所需內存芯片的40%,但蘋果與三星專利糾紛官司嚴重損害了兩者的關係。傳聞蘋果採購NAND記憶體時減少依賴三星,而漸進式增加東芝的採購量;在螢幕採購方面亦刻意迴避三星,而選擇LG、Sharp以及Japan Display。蘋果在軟件上去谷歌化,在硬件上去三星化,雖然具備戰略意義,但無可避免會加重成本,因為三星作為全球最大的螢幕和記憶體生產商,擁有無人能及的規模和價格優勢,轉向其他供應商勢必令成本上升。而且,對於蘋果減少依賴三星供應,有傳三星遂以加價應對,其對iPhone處理器加價20%,雖然三星予以否認,但不應排除三星在其他方面加價。

iPad mini

在右上圖中,可以看到2012年蘋果毛利率逐季下降,第一季度的47.4%是歷史高位,第二季和第三季回落至42.8%和40%,第四季進一步跌至38.6%,顯著低於去年同期44.7%,並且是蘋果過去兩年間,毛利率第一次跌穿四成。而今個季度,蘋果更預計毛利率會進一步下降,將介乎37.5%至38.5%之間。

毛利率計算收入與毛利的比例,而毛利等於收入減去成本。成本大漲固然構成毛利率受壓,而另一原因就是推出不足兩個月的iPad mini。

蘋果行政總裁庫克(Tim Cook)曾經提過,iPad mini的毛利率,顯著低於蘋果的其他產品。如果iPad mini「太」暢銷,就會令蘋果的整體毛利率受壓。今次毛利率跌穿40%,與iPad mini受歡迎不無關係。

直觀一點看,在蘋果Apple Store,iPad mini經常缺貨,而iPad的供應遠為充裕,間接證明iPad mini可能比iPad更受歡迎。當然蘋果的供應量亦有影響,iPad 4換芯不換款,可以繼續沿用舊有產品生產線,而iPad mini要另外設計生產線,iPad mini確實不如iPad供應充裕。

到底在iPad的2286萬台銷量當中,有多少是iPad,多少是iPad mini呢?雖然財務報表只提供iPad的整體銷量,沒有提供具體的數字,但不妨大膽推算一下。

比起iPhone的平均售價(ASP)過去一直維持在620至650美元之間,iPad的平均售價就一直呈現穩中下降的態勢。右圖顯示,由2011年第二季度的653美元開始,iPad的平均售價逐季下降,但整體上保持在530美元以上,直至上一季度,iPad mini推出令iPad的平均售價由535美元降至467美元,降幅達到13%。

眾所周知,不單上一代iPad,iPad系列有六個型號,因應不同容量,Wifi版本售價分別是499美元、599美元以及699美元,而Wifi+Cellular版本則是629美元、729美元以及829美元。而iPad平均售價不斷回落,過去幾季都是500多美元左右,反映Wifi 16GB版本最好賣,估計佔全部iPad銷量的三分之二以上。

而每一個版本的iPad mini,都比相應版本的iPad價格低上170美元,iPad mini Wifi 16GB版本售價329美元,較iPad售價499美元低170美元,如此類推。將iPad系列六個型號加總除以六,得出直接均價664美元,較實際均價535.05美元低129美元。如何理解這個數字?如果購買六個不同型號的人數相同,平均售價就會等如664美元;事實是平均售價是535.05元,證明買Wifi 16GB版本的人居多,大概是每一百個人之中,有超過七十個人會買最低規格版本,其他版本購買人數就相近,也就只有幾個人。

將iPad mini系列六個型號加總除以六,得出直接均價是494美元。假設第三和第四季度消費者購買iPad系列的結構一致,而第四季度所有人只買iPad mini,那麼iPad mini實際均價大概就是494美元減去129美元,即是365.05美元。而第四季度實際均價是467美元,介乎535.05美元和365.05美元之間,最接近的情況是六四比,iPad佔六成,iPad mini佔四成。即是季內iPad銷量為1372萬部,iPad mini銷量是914萬部,後者銷售額佔33.37億美元。

以上的估算數字十分不準確,因為第三季度不少人開始持幣觀望iPad mini的推出,這股購買力就在第四季度釋放,一定會改變購買結構。而且每逢蘋果推出真正的新產品,「第一水」都會受到蘋果擁躉支持,而且他們會傾向買價版本,變相拉高均價。

戰線擠擁,互相蠶食

不過如果認同以上推算,就會發現iPad第四季1372萬部的銷量,其實比起第三季1403.6萬部輕微下降,比起去年同期1543.4萬部更是按年減少11%。將iPad和iPad mini系列合計,整體iPad銷量必定是會增加,但單計iPad,銷量有所減少又實屬理所當然,因為不少人會覺得iPad過重,而iPad mini更輕薄更便攜,褲袋大些的話甚至可以放入褲袋,而且更便宜,確實會比iPad更符合部分消費者的需求。iPad mini會「搶走」一部分的iPad消費者,蠶食後者市場,是必然的結果。

事實上,蘋果產品,無論是功能或定價上,都有重疊的地方。功能上,由iPod touch到iPhone,由iPad mini到iPad,都是使用iOS系統,不過是在外觀尺寸不同,在硬件上有刪減,但無論你是用iPod touch、iPhone還是iPad mini,你都可以玩Temple Run或者Instagram。iPod touch/iPhone的iOS界面,與iPad mini/iPad界面有少許分別,但差異實際不大。iOS與Mac OS/OS X的差別就會大些,但是iPad與Mac同樣可以用到iWork編輯文件,兩個平台上還有很多功能相近的應用,例如Photoshop。

因此,iPhone蠶食iPod市場,iPad蠶食Mac市場,而iPad mini又會反過來蠶食iPad市場甚至iPhone市場。很多消費者由iPod以及Mac,轉移至iPhone以及iPad。有了iPhone,就不需要額外買一部iPod來聽歌;有了iPad作為娛樂、遊戲、影音之用,就不需要買Mac作同一用途,不過要繁鎖工作又另計。

你可能會質疑,除了新iPod系列推出的季度,iPod銷量的確逐季下降;但Mac銷量在個別季度是有所增長,與上述推論不符。事實上,Mac增長一方面是受到推出新Mac系列帶動,Macbook Pro with Retina Display就令不少人趨之若鶩;另一方面是iPhone/iPad帶來連鎖光環效應,令不少傳統PC用家都「轉會」試用Mac系統,因此PC市場銷量整體下降,但Mac就可以跑贏大市。iPad蠶食了少部Mac市場,但畢究兩者系統不同,分工比較明確,影響不算太大,但iPad就成功令其他Windows PC銷量下降,不少輕度消費者發現自己根本不需要PC作娛樂用途,一部iPad已經足夠。

不過,iPad mini的推出大大影響iPad的銷量,按上述推算,iPad銷量首次出現微降,iPad mini銷量就由零大增,這還是蘋果供應鏈追不上,iPad mini長期缺貨的結果。近期有報道稱,蘋果減少採購9.7吋的螢幕。值得留意的是,上季iPad mini正式開賣的時間只有兩個月,有一個月就只有iPad出售,而今季是iPad mini完整的銷售季度,幾乎肯定會繼續蠶食iPad市場,令整體iPad平均售價繼續下降。蘋果預計今季毛利率會由38.6%進一步下降,將介乎37.5%至38.5%之間,相信是考慮到iPad mini熱賣的因素。

考慮到iPad mini毛利率偏低,iPad mini雖然有助蘋果擴大市佔率,有助薄利多銷,並穩定在平板市場的戰線;但亦同時拖低蘋果毛利率,蠶食iPad市場,對蘋果的影響,其實好壞各有。

新產品新戰線

既然收入銷量增長放緩,市場競爭激烈、成本上升毛利下降,那麼蘋果的出路到底在何方呢?答案是新產品、新戰線。最近有不同的流言傳出,蘋果會推出iWatch、iTV,甚至iPhone平價版,蘋果新產品謠言無日無之,暫時姑且聽之吧!

不過,蘋果仍然是全球實力最強、市值最高的公司,沒有之一,坐擁富可敵國的現金,無論蘋果打算做甚麼,都會有足夠的彈藥。

Categories: Finance, iOS, Mobile

香港國美電器分店地址

January 21, 2013 Leave a comment

元朗青山公路251號
大埔安邦路8號及10號大埔超級城C區2樓567至570號鋪
銅鑼灣軒尼詩道482號
銅鑼灣時代廣場8樓801號鋪
荃灣眾安街55號英皇娛樂廣場地下G02A號鋪及地庫1樓
觀塘觀塘道418號創紀之城5期apm 5樓L5-3鋪
大埔安泰路1號大埔廣場銀星戲院部份地下
屯門屯利街1號華都花園三樓1A

Categories: Hong Kong, Shopping Guide

蘋果iPhone訂單減半?

January 15, 2013 Leave a comment

幾日前日經新聞和華爾街日報先後報道了蘋果將iPhone顯示面板的訂單數量減半,而隨後在36krifanr引述BGR作出反駁,主要是針對6500萬這個訂單數量。筆者同意BGR的部分論點,日經新聞忽略了iPod touch的訂單,同時也忽略了季節性因素帶來的影響,6500萬這個數字確實值得質疑。

不過,BGR針對的是6500萬的顯示面板訂單數量,報道的其他方面避而不談,似乎有失偏頗。蘋果大幅削減訂單是不爭的事實,因為日經報道詳細列舉了蘋果削減訂單對日本工廠的影響,Japan Display在日本石川縣能美市生產基地產能按季減少70%至80%,Sharp位於日本三重縣生產基地減少約40%產能,其他iPhone 5元件供應商包括Seiko Epson、村田製作所及TDK等都表示相關訂單已經減半。如果說顯示面板忽略了iPod touch尚說得通,但其他元件廠商的訂單同樣減半又如何解釋?這些細節很難作出反駁,因為實在太仔細了。

話說回來,蘋果削減訂單部分的原因是季節性因素這個說法沒有錯,聖延旺季完結,淡季來臨,銷量下跌很正常。去年的財報顯示2011Q4蘋果售出3704萬部iPhone,2012Q1略降至3510萬部,銷量按季減少不過5%,今年如果銷量減少50%,就屬於不正常了。不過,採購訂單減少並不代表銷量減少,因為兩者在時間上會有滯後,零件庫存會積存,先前訂得太多,今季減少訂單,實屬正常。

結論:蘋果iPhone銷量放緩是不爭的事實,不過訂單數據受到季節性因素影響,亦與蘋果的面板零件庫存水平有關,訂單減半是有點太過誇張,但的確反映銷售有不少的放緩。

P.S. 以上削減訂單,最快也要到2013Q1業績才會反映,蘋果本周公布的是2012Q4業績,應該是iPhone 5推出的首個完整季度,業績應該相當理想。[2013-1-21]

Categories: iOS, Mobile

Google Search: Operators and Tools

January 14, 2013 Leave a comment

●double quotations (“…”) for exact word or phrase e.g. “search query”
●a dash or minus (-) for exclude a word e.g. -query
●a tilde sign (~) for similar words e.g. ~query
●an asterisk (*) within a query for unknown e.g. query * query
●”at” sign (@) for social tags
●hashtag or number sign (#) for trending topics
●ampersand (&) for strongly connected ideas and phrases
●underscore symbol (_) for words linked together
●capitalized OR for either search query e.g. query OR query
●separate numbers by two periods (..) for results between them e.g. $100..$200, “8000.. mAh”
●fy:loquacious
●define:loquacious
●filetype:pdf
●site:google.com
●link:google.com
●related:nytimes.com
●location:hk/tw/cn can be used in google news search only

Categories: Web